The Yankees Are Interested in Gavin Lux. Is he an upgrade?

Our first rumor of 2025

Programming note: Happy New Year! I’ve been taking a bit of a break while the baseball news cycle is slow. I’m officially 100% back from parental leave, so my posting schedule is going to slow down a bit over the next few months.

We have a rumor! The Yankees were reportedly talking to the Dodgers about Gavin Lux, although it hasn’t gone anywhere yet.

The Dodgers don’t really need Lux. He’s a former top prospect, but struggled in 2024. They just signed Hyeseong Kim from the KBO to play somewhere in the middle infield alongside Lux, Mookie Betts and Miguel Rojas. Given that he is entering his second to last year of arbitration with a $3 million projected salary, Lux is a logical change of scenery trade candidate for the Dodgers.

Here’s what he did in 2024:

That’s a very average profile. Lux lost his excellent speed to an ACL tear before the 2023 season. His defense suffered even after being moved off shortstop. He’s a pretty average hitter all around.

But, on closer inspection, there is some better news. Lux got off to a brutal start in 2024, but recovered to hit .304/.390/.508 in the second half:

He has some of the biggest platoon splits that I’ve ever seen: .282/.332/.407 over the full season against righties and .152/.220/.174 against lefties in 2024.

The case for Lux on the Yankees is pretty clear to me. He’s basically a more talented version of Oswaldo Cabrera in a hypothetical Oswald(o) platoon that you could envision leading off against right-handed pitching. Maybe you hope that his first half could be explained by the knee injury and has some extra speed to spare now that he is farther from surgery. Even if he doesn’t recover, Lux is still an above average runner and just 27 years old. He solves a lot of problems for the Yankees, although he would probably push Jazz Chisholm to third base.

But I don’t see why the Dodgers would be eager to trade him. He’s still a valuable platoon piece to pair with Miguel Rojas. Sure, Hyeseong Kim plays a similar role, but Lux ix probably better. And he’s only making $3 million. My guess is that the Yankees called up the Dodgers, heard that they wanted some crazy return for Lux, and moved on.

What would be my best offer for Lux? With only two years of team control and a questionable value, I’m not giving up any major pieces. They can take one of Cousins, Hamilton, Cruz or Effross I guess, plus an unranked prospect. I can’t justify a higher price tag for a platoon player deep into arbitration coming off a .700 OPS season with below average defense at second, even if there is upside. He’s probably not a huge upgrade over Cabrera, especially because they would take a hit on defense between Lux being a downgrade over the Oswald(o) and Chisholm playing third.

I doubt that’s enough for the Dodgers, which is why I expect them to keep Lux. But it’s interesting to know that the Yankees are still making calls to try and find another infielder.