Yankees Trade Jose Trevino, Almost Trade for Nolan Arenado

Things are happening

Edit: I sent this out just as the Yankees signed Paul Goldschmidt. More on that soon.

Brian Cashman had a busy end to the work week. We have a trade, and maybe a more interesting report on another potential trade. Let’s discuss both.

Jose Trevino for Fernando Cruz and Alex Jackson

Trevino pretty obviously had no role on the Yankees. He’s probably one of the 30 best catchers in the world, so he is more valuable to a team without Austin Wells. I’ve always liked Trevino, but he’s too expensive to be just the right-handed side of a catching platoon.

I’m curious to see who wins the backup catcher competition now. The Yankees got Alex Jackson back in return, but my guess is that he’s just a depth piece. I think J.C. Escarra is probbly your backup catcher next year. Good for him. My only concern is that I hope the Yankees don’t wear out Austin Wells too much without a solid alternative. Even the best young catchers get beat up when they play too much. See: Adley Ruschman,

Cruz is a fun piece to get back. He might not be good, but he sure can strike guys out:

My first instinct was that the Yankees traded some guy who wasn’t going to make his team’s roster so he gets thrown into a trade like Caleb Ferguson or Victor Gonzalez last year. But those guys were pretty low ceiling pitchers. Cruz has tantalizing potential with his knock-out splitter. Maybe the Yankees can teach him where to throw it.

More importantly, they get out from Trevino’s estimated $3.4 million contract. They are slowly freeing up some payroll room to add their last two hitters.

Cardinals Decline Nolan Arenado for Marcus Stroman

This was an interesting rumor. To be honest, I never believed that the Yankees would be interested in Nolan Arenado. I’m a little lower on Arenado than Domenic, but let’s ignore that for a bit. Assuming that Arenado would waive his no-trade clause for the Yankees, it seems like the negotiation is just down to money.

Arenado’s contract is partially being paid by the Rockies and has some deferred money, so the team would be on the hook for about $60 million over three years, albeit with a slightly higher AAV for luxury tax purposes. As with Cody Bellinger, Arenado is a capable major league baseball player who is also overpaid. The Cardinals are also rebuilding, so they have a strong incentive to move him off their books even if it means holding on to some salary.

Marcus Stroman is also overpaid, especially if his 2026 player option vests with 140 innings pitched in 2025. How overpaid? He’d probably get a one year deal in the $10-12 million range on the open market. A Stroman-Arenado swap is therefore roughly equivalent to something like an Arenado salary dump where the Cardinals retain $6-8 million in 2025 and the same if his option vests for 2026.

So why did the Cardinals refuse? They might want to hold on to less than $6-8 million, but I’m skeptical. The teams could have made a few million either way work if they wanted the deal enough. Arenado has already vetoed a trade to the Astros, indicating his desire to play for a championship team in either California or the Northeast. But, I don’t see any third base openings on the Mets, Red Sox, Phillies, Padres or Dodgers, and I doubt that the Angels are interested. If Arenado would allow a trade to the Yankees, it’s not clear that there are any other buyers for St. Louis to try and get a better deal from.

Instead, I think the Cardinals just have no interest in Marcus Stroman. They would not hypothetically sign him on the open market if he were available because they are rebuilding and already have a few old mediocre innings eaters in Steven Matz and Miles Mikolas.

But now we’re just talking about money. The Yankees could trade Stroman to some other club, retain some of his salary, and then go back and talk to the Cardinals about Arenado. The Cardinals could then retain some of Arenado’s salary and send him off to the Yankees.

I think that is exactly what will happen. The Yankees will find someone to take $10-12 million of Stroman’s contract. They will then take something like $45 million of Arenado’s remaining $60 million over three years. I guess this means that I am predicting that Nolan Arenado will be the starting third baseman for the Yankees on Opening Day.

Is that a fair deal? Jeimer Candelario got $45 million over three years. He’s a bit younger, but was a 2.5-3.0 WAR player before getting the deal. Matt Chapman got a $25 million AAV and has been a 3.0-5.0 WAR player. I’m probably still a no at $45 million. But like Cody Bellinger, I think we’re in the range where a slight overpay isn’t a huge deal if it solves problems for the Yankees.