Today, Jack Curry reported on the Yankees discussions with the Pirates about Bryan Reynolds:
Curry has consistently had the best sources in the media on the Yankee front office. He and Kay discussed how the Pirates want a big return for the Reynolds, but the Pirates don’t really want the positions that the Yankees have to offer. They already have O’Neil Cruz at shortstop and Ke’Bryan Hayes at third base. The Yankees also aren’t in a rush to move their top two shortstop prospects. It sure sounds like they are talking about trades that could involve other players in the Yankee farm system, possibly in a three-way trade.
I’ve always been skeptical that Bryan Reynolds would command a massive prospect haul. The Pirates had been rumored to be asking for a team’s top three prospects in return for him. Reynolds is great, but not that great. If he repeated his 2021 season, I think he would fetch quite a big return, but he didn’t.
Here’s his 2021 Statcast profile:
Pretty elite! He made a ton of hard contact, drove the ball to all fields, didn’t strike out much, and was one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball. Reynolds deserved his MVP votes in 2021. He would have earned a massive prospect haul had the Yankees traded him. Then 2022 happened:
Reynolds still had a strong year, but declined across the board. He started striking out more, chasing more balls out of the zone. His speed declined a hair, but had a massive decline his defensive production due to taking bad jumps. Instead of earning MVP votes with 6+ WAR, he was worth a mere 3 WAR.
Pittsburgh can’t price Reynolds on the trade market as if he will immediately bounce back to his 2021 levels. Reynolds doesn’t have that kind of track record.
That said, I think Reynolds is a pretty good bet to bounce back. His 2022 (and subsequent “trade me” demand) smells pretty hard of bad teamitus. Pitchers didn’t throw him anything in the zone, so he started swinging at balls:
In New York, he gets to hit in front of Aaron Judge. You’ll bet he will see more pitches in the zone, or at least would be more comfortable taking pitches out of the zone.
I think he will improve on defense as well. He hasn’t slowed down; his defensive struggles could very well be an issue of frustrated poor concentration or effort on a losing team. He’s clearly dissatisfied with the Pirates. If the Yankees play him in left field and he returns to solid form, they will easily have baseball’s best defensive outfield. If Bader leaves in free agency after the season, Reynolds slides over to center field.
So what do we think the Pirates can get from the Yankees? I’m not going to try and construct a three-way trade, but what if the package looks something like this?
Yankees get: Bryan Reynolds
Pirates get: Domingo German, Austin Wells, Everson Peirera, Clark Schmidt, Aaron Hicks (most of his salary covered by New York)
That’s a pretty steep package, but the Yankees get to hang on to their top prospects. They lose a lot of pitching depth, but Pittsburgh needs immediate help in the majors if they are going to make this trade. I think I take this trade if I’m the Yankees, even if it hurts. Do you?
even the German-Schmidt-Pereira package might be too expensive for Reynolds
although it makes a lot of sense if the Yankees think that Dominguez is going to flop
rather than became more valuable than Reynolds