Aaron Judge, presumably on his way home for Thanksgiving, is meeting with the San Francisco Giants. The Giants have tons of money and not a lot of players signed to long term deals. Given that Judge is from Northern California, I wouldn’t be shocked if he signs with them.
Without Judge, what is the Yankee offseason plan? I see three routes.
Route #1: Sign Trea Turner or Carlos Correa
Aaron Judge isn’t the only big free agent on the market. Turner is in many ways the opposite of Judge. Where Judge is massive, Turner is fast. He’s top 1% in spring speed. But he’s not a slap hitter either; Turner hit .311/.361/.509 from 2019-2022. He’s a year younger than Judge, and will likely earn a similar contract.
Carlos Correa is also a shortstop, but a much different type of player. He’s a better defender (although not in 2022), has average speed and hits for more power. He’s also two years younger than Turner and three years younger than Judge.
Both Turner and Correa would replace a lot of what you lose by not signing Aaron Judge. However, the Yankees don’t really need a shortstop. They have three great young shortstops in the organization, plus Isaiah Kiner-Falefa. The Yankees would have to make a lot of other moves to either clear space for or trade away their surplus shortstops. They don’t really need a big expensive shortstop right now, even if the shortstop is pretty good.
Route #2: Go All-In on Pitching
A brief glance around at other hitters available shows a pretty thin field. The Yankees might still pick up a Benintendi or Yoshida to replace Judge, but if they want a mega free agent, they are going to have to go after pitching.
The two big names on the market are Justin Verlander and Jacob DeGrom. Both are elite players with questionable futures given their age and injury history. DeGrom is a year removed from a 1.08 ERA. Verlander is coming off a well-deserved Cy Young award. Both will be unreasonably expensive, but potentially worth it.
Imagine heading into the playoffs with a rotation of Verlander, Cole, Cortes and Severino. Those guys can cover up a lot of hitting flaws. The Yankees can piece together a lineup that’s better than what Cleveland throws out with young players and mid tier free agent signings, but count on the best rotation in the majors to do the heavy lifting.
Route #3: Rebuild
Without Aaron Judge putting up an 11-win season, the Yankees are a fringe playoff team. The remaining players are a year older, and few if any can be expected to bounce back. The Yankees have a stacked farm system. Maybe it’s time to pause for a minute a rebuild.
The Yankees have a lot of pending free agents. Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, Josh Donaldson, Franke Montas and Wandy Peralta are free agents after the 2023 season, with Gleyber Torres and much of the bullpen heading to free agency after the 2024 season. If the Yankees want to clean house, they could bring home a lot of prospects.
I’m going to write a post on the current state of the Yankee farm system soon, but here’s the short version: they are stacked with hitters in the high minors. A rebuild would clear room not only for the shortstops you’ve heard about ad nauseum, but also Jasson Dominguez, Austin Wells, Andres Chaparro, Elijah Dunham and others to find spots in the majors. Not all of these guys will work out, but the Yankees only need a few to click to form a major championship core. After a season or two of clearing out some old players from the roster, they could turn on the spending again.
Do I think the Yankees are going to rebuild? Probably not. They are burdened by the expectation of perpetually winning. Plus, they’ve got guys like Giancarlo Stanton and Gerrit Cole on the payroll for the foreseeable future. But option #3 might be the path that builds a new dynasty, rather than a shell of the team that relied so much on Aaron Judge.