Blake Snell rumors are heating up. This feels real.
Earlier in the offseason, I wrote that I didn’t want to sign Blake Snell at his asking price. I think he’s a bit overrated and won’t age well. Still, he’s a pretty good pitcher. I wrote then and still believe that he would be a good addition if the Yankees can get a short term deal.
The problem is the luxury tax. The Yankees will pay a 110% tax on any new spending. That makes a high-AAV, short term deal very expensive. A one year, $30 million deal for Snell would marginally cost $63 million. Maybe the Steinbrenners are happy to pay that cost, but I’m skeptical.
Let’s assume that they aren’t. Bellinger’s deal is structured as $30 million in 2024 and 2025, with opt outs after each season, and $20 million in 2026. The luxury tax hit is $26 million, or $55 million to the Yankees.
Could we lower that AAV? I bet the Yankees could. In fact, I’m going to make a prediction. Snell signs the following contract:
2024: $30 million, opt out
2025: $20 million, opt out
2026: $20 million
$2027: $20 million
2028: $15 million
2029: $15 million
The deal would guarantee Snell $120 million. It’s AAV is $20 million. The Yankees would pay Snell’s $30 million salary in 2025, plus $22 million. Snell is strongly encouraged to opt out after the 2024 season, but is guaranteed a big payday if something goes wrong. It’s effectively a one year deal with some insurance for Snell. If he’s an ace again, Snell could go out and ask for a long term contract.
Signing Snell would be a BFD. Just look at his Statcast page:
That’s pretty darn elite. Snell would cement the 2024 Yankee rotation as the best in the American League. And all he costs is money.
This is similar to what I’ve been thinking for the past couple of weeks. I just don’t know that Boras will agree to this kind of structure. Additionally, it hurts that they’d lose 2 draft picks plus $1 million in international draft pool money.
Wishful thinking on my part.