Fangraphs recently published their rankings of major league bullpens for 2024. The Yankees landed solidly below the MLB average:
For anyone who has followed the Yankees over the past decade, it’s pretty shocking to see the Yankees struggling to put together a great bullpen. But it’s also hard to argue with these projections:
Reliever performance is incredibly volatile, which is why you see a lot of ERAs regressed heavily toward the mean. I’d probably bet on Holmes finishing closer to his 2.86 ERA in 2023 than 3.54, but all MLB bullpens are subject to the same regression estimates.
The reality is that after Clay Holmes, the Yankees have a ton of questionable pitchers in their bullpen. Jonathan Loaisiga can’t strike anyone out. Tommy Kahnle is starting the season injured. Ian Hamilton only had one great year. Burdi is a journeyman, albeit a talented one. Gonzalez and Ferguson are solid mid-inning options, but don’t have a track record of excellence.
Here are the three questions that I have for the Yankees bullpen in 2024:
Who Will Get Blaked?
Matt Blake, and the Yankees organization in general, specializes in churning out high end relief pitching. Ian Hamilton, Wandy Peralta, Clay Holmes, Michael King, Chad Green and Lucas Luetge were all important Yankee relief pitchers that came out of no where.
The Yankees have a few Blake candidates on the roster. Nick Burdi and his 100 mph fastball made the roster out of Spring Training. If he can stay healthy and keep some control, Burdi’s stuff will play. Luke Weaver’s MLB contract is conspicuous given his MLB track record, and I wonder if Blake has a plan. Cody(s) Poteet and Morris seem like they have some potential to take a step at Triple-A.
If I had to pick one Blake candidate, it would be Clayton Beeter. Right now, Beeter looks like the Guy With Options on the Opening Day Roster, destined to be sent down when the bullpen needs a rest. But, prospect lists have long projected Beeter to transition from a fringe starter to a high end relief pitcher. Beeter has a killer pitch mix, with Fangraphs putting his fastball, slider and curveball all at 60. But, he has been plagued for years by terrible control. I see a lot of speculation that Beeter will find more control in shorter outings. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Beeter grab hold of a high leverage relief spot in early 2024 and never give it up.
How Will the Injured Guys Do?
Scott Effross and Lou Trivino are going to be very important in the second half.
Effross is coming back from Tommy John and back surgery. Trivino from just Tommy John. Both are on likely not going to return before the summer.
The Yankees could really use a pair of stable right-handed relief pitchers to complement Ferguson and Gonzalez. Right now, they are a little imbalanced. Their best late inning relief pitchers, Holmes, Hamilton and maybe Loaisiga, are all right-handed. Their best middle relievers, Gonzalez and Ferguson, are left-handed. Maybe one of them steps up into a late inning role, but I think it’s still an open question as to who mixes and matches from the right side in the middle innings.
Effross and Trivino seem like those guys. At least one of them should return healthy and effective. Neither have the talent of a true relief ace, but they could provide a steady hand when everyone else is exhausted.
And on that note, the biggest question:
How Many Innings Will They Have to Pitch?
The Yankees bullpen pitched 619 innings in 2023, 11th most in the league with a lot of teams that frequently use openers ahead of them. For years, the Yankees have limped into the Fall with an exhausted bullpen.
Yankee starters not named Gerrit Cole did not go the distance last year:
However, I don’t think that’s the reason why the Yankees bullpen was so exhausted last year, especially before the team completely collapsed in August and September. Because the Yankees couldn’t score runs, they were constantly protecting fragile leads. With few blow outs, they were constantly calling on their high leverage relief pitchers to throw.
Here is what they asked Wandy Peralta to throw in May:
15 games! That’s a tremendous amount of strain to put on a modern, all-out relief arm, especially considering that Peralta probably warmed up for a handful of other games. But what was Aaron Boone going to do? The Yankees were trying to win close games. If he sits Peralta and pitches Albert Abreu or Nick Ramirez instead, the Yankees might lose that precious game.
Luckily, the 2024 Yankees are set to score a lot more runs. Hopefully, the hitters will open up a few more leads of 4, 5 or 6 runs early in the game. Aaron Boone might feel comfortable keeping in a starter for an inning or two after the third time through the order. He might be able to give relief pitchers more clean innings, rather than coming in to high stress men on base scenarios. The Yankees might even have open up a few blowouts, where Luke Weaver and company can give the rest of the bullpen a break. Offense saves a bullpen as much if not more than length starting pitching.
Bottom Line
The Yankees bullpen is weak on paper. The projection systems don’t know that the Yankees have a strong pitching coach and organizational approach. I don’t expect the Yankees to put out a below average bullpen in 2024. At the same time, the roster is clearly thinner than previous years. If no one steps up, they could end up blowing a lot more games late than usual. I bet we see an acquisition before the deadline, unless Effross and Trivino come back real strong.