The Yankees Should Trade for Oneil Cruz

Trade for ceiling

It’s been a rough month. The Boone Swoon happened for a fifth straight year, with no signs of the team coming out of it again. But, the Yankees are still in a strong position to not only make the playoffs, but win the AL East. They’re going to be buyers at the trade deadline.

Before the bad month, it was hard to imagine where the Yankees could find a big upgrade at the deadline other than adding Eugenio Suarez at third base or adding some bullpen arms. The team was just too well-rounded. But things have changed. They’re now locked in a three way street fight for first place. The team needs to make a big move to stay competitive.

So I want to spend the next few weeks discussing trades beyond the usual suspects. These trades are both intended to help the 2025 team and set them up for the future. Let’s start with a fun one.

The Pirates are in full sell mode, and Oneil Cruz is in theory on the table. His Statcast page is a little insane:

Cruz is one of the best athletes in the major leagues. He swings the bat and hits the ball harder than anyone else, including Aaron Judge. He walks a ton. He’s crazy fast and has the game’s best outfield arm. But, he also strikes out more than pretty much anyone thanks to being 6’7”. His .717 OPS is a little low according to Statcast, but not absurdly so.

He’s also got worse platoon splits than even Jasson Dominguez: .815 OPS against righties, .444 OPS against lefties.

He’s a flawed superstar. It’s all adds up to about a 3 WAR player, or somewhere in between Anthony Volpe and Austin Wells. But his ceiling is incredible if some team can fix his swing. Hook the man up Aaron Judge’s hitting coach.

You can see why the Pirates might trade Cruz. Right now, he’s a very flashy above average player who is about to enter arbitration. He might have more value in a trade than he does to the Pirates.

Cruz would slot in as your centerfielder and maybe leadoff hitter. Bellinger would move over to left or even play a lot of 1st base.

What would it cost to acquire him? A lot, obviously, but I’m not sure what degree of a lot. You could make a strong argument that he’s less valuable than Jazz Chisholm was when the Yankees got him for Agustin Ramirez. On the other hand, I bet that he would be in high demand.

Let me throw out three archetypal teams and let’s discuss if they would get it done.

1. All Prospects: Spencer Jones, Brendan Beck and Carlos LaGrange for Oneil Cruz

2. Pittsburgh Needs a MLBer: Jasson Dominguez for Oneil Cruz

3. Blockbuster: Jasson Dominguez, Spencer Jones, Cam Schlittler and Carlos LaGrange for Ke’Bryan Hayes, David Bednard and Oneil Cruz

You could sub in a lot of players on the Yankees side in these trades, but I want to discuss the basic ideas.

I think there are two problems with an all prospect trade. First, Pittsburgh probably wants major league players, even if just to justify the trade to their fans. Second, the Yankees would only make their OF/DH/1b logjam worse by adding an outfielder without subtracting one. Even if they traded Grisham or someone after the deal, they still have an extra player.

So what about a Dominguez for Cruz swap? Honestly, the players are a little too similar. Cruz has two fewer years of team control and is more than four years older. They’re both fast, strikeout prone players with gigantic platoon splits and lots of upside. I think I’d rather keep Dominguez.

The blockbuster trade is a framework to make it work for both teams. The Yankees get third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, another flawed hitter who is one of the best defenders in baseball. He’s being paid just $9 million for a 2ish WAR performance, but maybe the Yankees can squeeze a little more juice out of the orange.

They also get a strong rental reliever in David Bednar.

The Pirates get Dominguez and a bunch of solid prospects. I named Jones, Schlittler and LaGrange, but you could slot in any combination of prospects, or a three way trade involving some other team throwing in prospects and the Yankees throwing in Trent Grisham.

Could Mitch Keller be included in a blockbuster trade? I’m against it. His $15 million AAV for the next four and a half years is nice, but he’s been a pretty mediocre starter for a long time now:

Give me a shorter term commitment to Luis Severino over Keller right now.

I’m not sure if any of these trades make sense, or if Cruz is seriously on the market. Maybe he even goes for a 2025 version of the Jazz Chisholm trade, or significantly more.