Prediction: Juan Soto is a Yankee on Monday

One Last Tea Leaf Reading

Programming Note: No Bronx Beat Podcast today. We’re going to wait for some Soto news. Plus, I have a bad cold.

We’re still in waiting mode. The Winter Meetings begin tomorrow. All of baseball world is on their way to a massive hotel in Dallas. Scott Boras is a showman, and you can be sure that he wants to announce the largest contract in baseball history with all those people watching him in person.

After reading a few tea leaves, I think that the Yankees are going to sign Soto. Here are the nodes on my conspiracy board:

• Both the Yankees and Mets have increased their offers north of $700 million. Both are reported to be in the $710-$730 range, so not much of a difference between the two teams.

• Willy Adames, a reported Yankee target, signed with the Giants ahead of the Winter Meetings.

• The Mets are reportedly interested in every significant free agent pitcher.

• The Yankees are interested in a reunion with former prospect Thairo Estrada, presumably on a minor league deal or small guaranteed contract.

Let me connect these dots. Steve Cohen isn’t going to offer a ton of money on top of the Yankee offer. My theory all along has been that Soto will return to the Yankees if money isn’t a big differentiator. Hal Steinbrenner appears to be matching Steve Cohen. Unless Cohen comes back with a massive new number or something, Soto is a Yankee again.

Next, Willy Adames got a slightly bigger than expected deal from the Giants. I can’t imagine that his agent, who happens to be Scott Boras, wouldn’t wait to try and bid the number up a little bit if the Yankees would suddenly start driving up the price on other players. Maybe Buster Posey made such a great pitch to Adames that he just decided to sign, but Adames could also have waited a few days to get a little more money or an opt out or something.

What about the Mets? They might be thinking about their Plan Bs. Cohen can drop all of that money that he would have spend on Soto on a bunch of free agent pitchers. They’ve already signed Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes (!) to add to their rotation, but they could use some higher end arms. I’m a little nervous that Corbin Burnes and Max Fried aren’t in this report, but David Stearns seems to prefer shorter term deals.

Finally, and I think the most telling node on the conspiracy board, Thairo Estrada only really makes sense for the Yankees if you need to cheap out on an infield spot. After two-and-a-half straight seasons with a shockingly strong OPS, Estrada regressed back down to .217/.247/.343 in 2024. But, there’s some interesting upside with Estrada. He was the best infielder in baseball in 2023 with an insane 20 OAA (!) at second base, and a almost as good +8 OAA in half a season in 2024. He played most of the 2024 season with a wrist injury and the latter half with a hamstring injury, so the hope is that Estrada can bounce back and hit closer to his career .694 OPS.

Is Estrada an upgrade over Gleyber Torres? Probably not. But is he an upgrade over Caleb Durbin? Probably yes. Or at least, he’s a good player to throw into the mix in a cheap Spring Training battle for second base. The Yankees could be setting up a truly elite defensive infield, especially if Chisholm gets more comfortable at 3rd base. The Yankees won’t have a lot of money left after paying Soto so much and need to prioritize 1st base and the bullpen. Without Soto, it makes sense to try and sign someone like Bregman or Adames or trade for someone like Eugenio Suarez or Alec Bohm to fill the infield spot.

We’ll know if I’m correct pretty soon. I’ll react to the size of Soto’s contract when we know the actual terms and who signs him. Fingers crossed.