It’s time for the Yankees to reload. The core of their roster was strong in 2022, but the periphery was weak. The Yankees have too many very talent old, expensive guys. It’s time for the team to reload.
In sports, reloading means that the Yankees will try and remain competitive while making the team better in the future. The Yankees aren’t going to throw in the towel for 2022, trade away guys like Harrison Bader and Luis Severino, and tell the fans to be patient. They’re the Yankees. They’ve had a sustained run of success since 1994. They don’t rebuild.
In three years, I want the Yankees to be a young, dynamic team. I want two or three of the following group of players in the starting lineup every day: Anthony Volpe, Oswald Peraza, Andres Chaparro, Austin Wells, Jasson Dominguez. I also want to a few of see Oswaldo Cabrera, Elijah Dunham, Everson Pereira, Ben Rortvedt, Anthony Seigler and Trey Sweeney in supporting roles. At least half of these players will fail to become good major league players, but the Yankees have the talent base to produce a solid half to third of their team with young, cheap prospects.
I want the rest of the team in three years to be filled out with expensive, elite free agents. The Yankees have made a habit of signing or trading for expensive short-term commitments from declining veterans like Josh Donaldson and Anthony Rizzo. Those deals have in turn made it more difficult to budget in elite free agents. I want more Gerrit Coles and Freddie Freemans and fewer mediocre veterans. When a Juan Soto or Bryce Harper becomes a free agent, I want the Yankees to be in the best possible position to sign him.
How do we make this three year plan work this offseason?
Step #1: Resign Aaron Judge to a 7-year, $300 million contract
Aaron Judge just had the best season of all time. The Yankees couldn’t ask for a better leader and public face. He should be a Yankee for life.
Lots of big contracts for elite aging hitters have gone poorly over the last decade. The Tigers and Angels had to live through the long decline years of Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols on mega-contracts. While a big Judge contract is risky, I think that risk is worth the upside.
That said, Judge deserves a post of his own, so I will stop here for now with one thought. If the Yankees do not sign Aaron Judge, the offseason plan probably has to turn from a reload to something closer to a rebuild. There are no free agent substitutes for Aaron Judge out there right now. The Yankees only won 99 games despite Judge having the best season of all time. Without him, they struggle to make the playoffs and might as well take a season or two to let the kids play.
Step #2: Pay Someone to Take Josh Donaldson, Aaron Hicks
Roster spots are valuable. When a player is a respected veteran, a roster spot usually guarantees playing time as long as the veteran is healthy. If the Yankees are going to have a youth movement, they need to have roster spots to let prospects compete over.
I don’t think that the Yankees will have much trouble finding someone to take Josh Donaldson. The old veteran is clearly in the decline, but was still worth around 2 WAR last season due to elite defense. Add in some possibility of a rebound, and I suspect some team would be happy to play Donaldson at third next season. The Yankees are going to have to take some of his salary, but nothing too crazy.
Aaron Hicks is a tougher problem to solve. Hicks has three years remaining on his contract. As expected, Hicks lost nearly all of his power following the same wrist surgery that ended Mark Teixeira’s career. The Yankees are going to have to take on Hick’s remaining contract to convince some team to take him. That said, I think some rebuilding team might want to take a gamble on a cheap, not-too-old veteran. Unlike Donaldson, Hicks is a good clubhouse guy who could mentor a growing team. If he rebounds, the team could flip him for prospects.
Step #3: Bring Back Anthony Rizzo
Before three weeks ago, did you know that Anthony Rizzo had an opt-out clause? I didn’t. After a strong season, Rizzo is going to test the market.
The Yankees have a lot of prospects in the high minors, but none play first base. If Rizzo leaves, the Yankees are probably stuck playing DJ LeMahieu, who can still play a strong third or second when healthy, at first. Given that we’re reloading and not rebuilding, Rizzo is Plan A.
I don’t think anyone is going to give Rizzo a long term deal. I bet that his agent and the Yankees will negotiate a modest contract extension: one more year, a small raise and another opt-out after the 2023 season. That seems like a win-win to me.
Step #4: Don’t Sign Bench Players
Come Spring Training, the Yankees are going to have a lot of roster spots in flux. Cabrera and arguably Peraza are on the team by default. Volpe, Wells, Florial, Pereira, Chaparro, Dunham, Rortvedt and a few others could compete for Opening Day spots. In my ideal world, one or two prospects secure starting roles out of Spring training and two or three others end up on the bench.
The Yankees need to give an opportunity for the young guys to grab a roster spot, either in Spring Training or through a standout early season performance at Triple-A. That means pushing a major league player to the bench. Gleyber Torres, Isaiah Kiner-Falefa and DJ LeMahieu will probably be on the Opening Day roster. There is going to be temptation to hand each one a starting job from Day 1.
If the Yankees sign two or three major league bench players, it will be very hard for any prospect to claim a roster spot barring an injury. The Yankees can fall back on their good enough veterans if they need to, but they can’t double-block young players by adding another Marwin Gonzalez or Matt Carpenter to the team. My ideal Opening Day roster has Peraza at short and a dynamic bench of Torres, Cabrera, IKF and LeMahieu rotating around the infield, but could also include a surprise pick or two based on Spring Training.