Is the Yankee Bullpen Pretty Good or Really Bad?
Maybe both?
The 2022 bullpen was a wild ride. In the first half of the season, the Yankee had the best or second best bullpen in the majors, with a 2.89 ERA and 4.5 fWAR. In the second half, the Yankees had the 20th best bullpen in the majors with a 3.08 ERA (4.02 xFIP) and just 1.4 fWAR. The Yankees lost to the Astros for a lot of reasons, but it was hard to see a team with such a broken and inconsistent bullpen pulling out a World Series run.
The Yankees are set to return pretty much the same bullpen that was strong in the first half and terrible in the second half:
While Deivi Garcia is listed by default as making the roster, I think we’re much more likely to see Mike King make the Opening Day roster. Tommy Kahnle is the only other major addition since the end of last year. Aroldis Chapman is, finally, gone.
Is this roster any better than the one that looked so bad at the start of the playoffs? Let’s take the most interesting players one-by-one.
Clay Holmes
Relief pitchers are volatile. They pitch so few innings that their ERAs can fluctuate wildly year-to-year based off one or two bad home runs allowed or bad luck with inherited runners. Case in point: here’s Clay Holmes over the last two seasons:
Holmes was pretty much unhittable from about a month after the Yankees got their hands on for the next calendar year. Then, he had a sustained period with an ERA around 6.00.
Which Clay Holmes is real? Who knows. When he has control, Holmes has a hard sinker that a lot of big time relief pitchers make a lot of money off. When he doesn’t, Holmes can’t get batters out. I don’t think we’ll know until we see him play in April. The Yankees either have the best closer in the league or the worst one. Maybe both.
Jonathan Loaisiga
Loaisga was the chosen one! We all thought we were witnessing the breakout season of the next star Yankee relief pitcher in 2021. I mean, damn:
Other than a few more strikeouts, what else could you want in a relief pitcher? Loaisiga looked genuinely like the best relief pitcher in baseball in 2021. Batters couldn’t hit him hard, but (unlike Holmes), he had great control. Then 2022 happened:
He still threw the ball hard, with spin. He still got the best soft contact in the game. But he lost his control, increasing both walks and decreasing strikeouts. He won his control back by the end of the season, but the strikeouts disappeared:
I don’t think we’ve seen any sign that 2021 Loaisiga was back by the end of 2022, but we did see a pretty good relief pitcher. Maybe Loaisiga is just the weak contact guy you bring on with men on base. For now, he’s not a closer.
Wandy Peralta
Wandy had a legitimate breakout year. Here’s his 2021 season:
Very average! Here’s what happened in 2022:
One of the best relief pitchers in baseball! I think Wandy got a little overexposed by the end of 2022. He is one of the best pitchers in baseball at getting left handed batters out, but still pretty average at getting righties out. Given that he’s the only lefty in the bullpen entering 2023, I hope Wandy gets a higher proportion of his plate appearances against lefties.
Michael King, Tommy Kahnle, Ron Marinaccio
None of these guys played enough in 2022 to put up interesting Statcast leaderboards. What they all did was put up ERAs under 3.00, closer to 2.00 in Marinaccio and King’s case. I think there’s a good chance that all three of these guys are better than the three guys above. However, King and Kahnle are coming off major injuries, while Marinaccio only has a half season in the majors. We’ll see.
Lou Trivino
I don’t think he’s very good, even if he improved with the Yankees:
Ouch. I hope the Yankees aren’t relying on him.
Scott Effross
We’re going to miss him:
Get well soon. See you in 2024.
Bottom Line
I’m 35 years old. I’ve been following the Yankees closely for at least 20 years. It is very weird to not look at the team and be confident in the bullpen. Even after Mariano Rivera retired, the Yankees had guys like Dellin Betances, Aroldis Chapman, David Robertson, Andrew Miller and Zach Britton to anchor an elite bullpen year after year. Now, they have a much more normal major league bullpen. Could it be pretty good? Sure. Could it be terrible? Absolutely. Buckle up.