How Much Money Does Cashman Have to Spend?
A lot, but not enough
The Yankees spent $309 million on player salaries in 2024. Hal Steinbrenner indicates that the budget won’t increase. This may be controversial among Yankee fans, but I think $309 is more than enough. The Steinbrenners had a stingy phase awhile back, but they are back to spending right up there with the top teams in the league. A good GM should be able to succeed with that budget.
When arbitration raises are accounted for, Fangraphs estimates that the Yankees currently under team control would cost about $243.5 million. However, that isn’t the whole story. The following players are near-locks to be non-tendered or traded:
Tim Mayza, $4.0 million
Trent Grisham, $5.7 million
JT Brubaker, $2.3 million
I also think there is a pretty good chance that the Yankees trade Nestor Cortes ($7 million) or Jon Berti ($3.8 million). They might resign Mayza or Brubaker as depth pieces but at a lower salary. That could bring payroll down to as far as about $230-$240 million, or $60-70 million to spend on free agents.
The only real salary dump candidate on the roster is Marcus Stroman, but I’m skeptical that anyone would take his $18 million until he shows some more velocity.
That’s not bad! But it gets eaten up very quickly by a huge Juan Soto deal.
Let’s say that Juan Soto’s AAV comes in around $45 million (something like $600 million over 13 years). The Yankees would have something like $15-25 million to spend. If they add a first baseman for around $18 million, they are down to just a few lower priced relief pitchers or bench players.
Honestly, I thought they had more to spend in my head. Soto really does eat up a ton of the budget. I still think it is a good idea to bring Soto back, but I think he basically locks in Dominguez as a starter and a cheap platoon in the infield and rules them out of any real pitching addition. There isn’t really a world where the Yankees sign Soto and someone like Blake Snell, but Christian Walker is still in reach.
We need to keep in mind, if we're talking about the 2024 CBT, that Soto already accounted for $31M, so even if his AAV goes up to $51M, that an increase of only $20M, and by subtracting Rizzo, Torres, and Verdugo, and replacing 2 of those guys with rookies, you are at about minus $18M from that bunch. Donaldson was on the CBT for $6M, and that just gets rolled over to bring Rizzo, an even swap. We're only about 11 days out from finding out who gets non tendered,, and I still go back n forth if they will go kid/get on 1 year prove it deal, or someone like Christian Walker. If the Mets sign Soto, don't see how the Yankees don't sign Alonzo.