Has Spencer Jones Finally Broken Out?

There's good news and bad news

Spencer Jones has been promoted to Triple-A after almost two full seasons at Double-A. He’s hitting an impressive .274/.389/.594 with 16 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 49 games (50/40 pace), but is striking out 34% of the time.

Jones has always had incredible potential, but it wasn’t always visible in games. By now means has he been a bad minor league hitter, but his results have only been above average. For an older prospect with his physical abilities and contact issues, above average was never going to cut it. He needed to be destroying minor league pitching, not merely holding his own.

That is why his 2025 start to the season is genuinely great news. He’s not just a batting practice phenom anymore. He leads the Eastern League in wRC+,* slugging and is fourth in on base percentage. He leads the league in home runs despite missing three weeks with an injury. He’s also second in strikeout percentage.

*George Lombard Jr. is batting .219/.349/.331, but is actually 29th in wRC+ at 109. It’s rough out there for batters.

He’s also hitting home runs like this:

It’s impossible to miss the Aaron Judge parallels. Like Jones, Judge was a batting practice prospect until he finally broke out in the majors at 25 (Jones is 24), hitting .276/.371/.471 in the minors. But, Judge was always more of a 25% strikeout guy in the majors. He strukc out around 30% of the time in his early minor league seasons before cutting down steadily in his late 20s and 30s.

I’m still pretty skeptical that Jones will make enough contact in the major leagues to be a viable hitter. Just six qualified MLB hitters are striking out over 30% in 2025, and only one, Riley Green, is a good hitter. If Double-A hitters are whiffing Jones that often, how will he do against major league hitters?

That said, I think it’s fair to call 2025 a breakouts season for Jones. He’s finally putting it together in a manner that manifests in games. Even if he doesn’t end up as Aaron Judge, he could turn into a left-handed O’Neil Cruz. Flawed? Sure, but still valuable.

This is probably a reach, but I wonder how his strikeout rate will fare in Triple-A. Jones might benefit, like Judge, from a more accurate strike zone. I’m convinced that a big reason why Judge didn’t break out until 2022 was that he was getting way too many low strikes called against him. Maybe Jones is getting similar bad calls in the minors. Triple-A is using the robo-zone challenge system this season. I’ll be watching to see how Jones adapts.

And either way, his trade value has certainly recovered a lot. If the Yankees are shopping for a big buy at the deadline, teams will be interested in Jones.