The 2023 season begins this week. It’s time to bring out my crystal ball and make some educated guesses about how the Yankees are going to perform.
Prediction #1: Aaron Judge Wins MVP Again
Aaron Judge is coming off one of the best performances of all time. He won MVP easily despite having pretty stiff competition in Shohei Ohtani. I think he can do it again.
Judge has talked about improving his two-strike approach in Spring Training. He’s clearly trying to level out his swing and hit more base hits. I wouldn’t be shocked if Judge takes a bit of a step back in the power department, but continues to improve his strikeout rate. He hits the ball so hard that Judge could be a batting average monster with a low-20s strikeout rate. I love this trend from Judge:
Shohei Ohtani is still stiff competition. He’s a legendary player. But I’m not going to bet against the guy who put up an 11.4 fWAR season in 2022.
Prediction #2: Anthony Volpe Wins Rookie of the Year
Since I started writing this blog post, Anthony Volpe started the Sunday game batting leadoff, playing shortstop, and hit a single, double and triple. It sure feels like Volpe is going to be the starting shortstop on Opening Day, batting leadoff. He’s going to hit, steal bases, and play good enough defense. His chief competition will be Gunnar Henderson, baseball’s top prospect and likely Orioles Opening Day third basemen. I love a good rivalry. Hopefully these two division rivals develop one for a long time.
I don’t think it is likely that the Yankees will mess with Volpe’s playing time. The new CBA contained a clause that if a player finishes top-2 in Rookie of the Year voting, they will receive a full year of playing time. At the time, I thought the rule was a pretty toothless way to combat service time manipulation. Now? It sure feels like the rule makes it easier for the Yankees to call Volpe up immediately. Plus, they would receive an additional pick at the end of the first round.
Prediction #3: Marinaccio Ends the Season as Closer
This one is a bit of an upper and downer. Relief pitchers barely throw in Spring Training (and when they do, it’s usually against Triple-A hitters), so I haven’t seen more than a little bit of Jonathan Loaisiga and Clay Holmes. Both are throwing hard with control, so that’s a good sign. I entered the season skeptical of both as elite relief pitchers.
Holmes lost all control in the second half of last season. Inconsistent control is the death of any closer. I’d be less concerned if he had a longer track record of elite pitching. It wouldn’t shock me if we see First Half Holmes for most of the 2023 season, but I’m not betting on it.
Loaisiga had plenty of control, but completely lost his strikeout touch. Even when he was effective late in 2023, he barely struck anyone out. Check out his September game log:
There’s a lot of good in those games. Batters hit just .217/.266/.233 off him. Statcast suggests that he didn’t just get lucky; Loaisiga allowed the lowest average exit velocity in baseball in 2022. However, his strikeout rate was just 12.5%. That’s way too low for a modern closer, even with the weak contact. Without the shift, more hits are going to fall in. He’ll allow runs through sheer weak contact luck.
That leaves us with Ron Marinaccio. He’s got good closer stuff: a changeup to deal with lefties and a Yankees sweeper to deal with righties. He strikes guys out. He doesn’t walk them. His xERA was 2.70 last season. I think he’s the best pitcher in this bullpen.
Prediction #4: Giancarlo Stanton Doesn’t Bounce Back
Now for the real downer. I think we have a serious Giancarlo Stanton problem. His bat has looked slow in Spring Training. We haven’t seen a lot of Stantonian exit velocities so far. He’s still hitting the ball on the ground too much.
Giancarlo Stanton is 33 years old. While he’s still in great shape, his athletic skills are declining fast. He hit .211/.297/.462 last season, but his production really fell off a cliff in the second half:
Stanton has gone into slumps before, but nothing quite like his 2022 collapse. As far as we know, he wasn’t nursing some injury. He was playing the field a bit more than previous years. I hope I’m wrong, but it feels like we’re seeing Decline Stanton for the first time.
The glimmer of hope? Stanton had a .351 xwOBA in 2022, which would be in line with his career performance as a Yankee when you account for the offensive environment that year.
Prediction #4: Jasson Dominguez Doesn’t Debut
Jasson Dominguez sure is fun to watch. I don’t think there’s ever been a better nickname to accurately describe a young player as “The Martian.” Dominguez looks strong as hell, and he performed that way in early Spring. Given how thin the Yankees are in the outfield, it’s fun to imagine Dominguez as their mid-summer call up.
But I think we need to pump the breaks a bit. Domginuez has very little experience above High-A. While I’m thrilled about his transformation into a contact hitter, he needs to do it again and against better stuff. Dominguez was a trainer-league Dominican kid who lost his first full minor league season to COVID. His rust showed in 2021, as he struggled to do much of anything at the plate.
The man needs reps. Not in the gym (he’s got that covered) or the batting cage. He needs to see lots of breaking balls and changeups and cutters and all of the things he will see in the major leagues. Like the Yankee infield trio, he’s probably going to struggle early in the 2023 season. That’s okay. I think he starts at Double-A, figures it out by June, earns a promotion to Triple-A in July, and spends some time figuring that level out. We then get to repeat 2023 Spring Training next year, but Hicks is IKF and Everson Peirera is Oswaldo Peraza.
I could be wrong here. Dominguez has the insane talent to break out very quickly. But I’m betting that The Martian is human.
Prediction #5: The Yankee Rotation Will Be Healthy, Eventually
We heard this morning that Luis Severino will start the season on the injured list with a lat strain. Carlos Rodon is throwing again, but is going to be at least a few more weeks rehabbing his arm injury. Nestor Cortes appears about a week behind. The starting rotation on Opening Day will feature Clark Schmidt and Domingo German as the 2/3 starters, and a mystery player as Severino’s replacement.
That’s scary, but I think it’s okay to take a breath here. Rodon’s injury is the scariest of the bunch, and he seems okay. Lat and hamstring strains happen. Pitchers recover. Cortes and Severino are motivated to get back on the mound and play well. I don’t think there’s any reason to discount what we thought they were going to do based on Spring hiccups. At some point soon, the Yankees will again have the best rotation in baseball.
Bonus Prediction: Everyone’s Batting Line and ERA
Hitters:
Volpe: .280/.340/.480
Judge: .320/.420/.600
LeMahieu: .290/.380/.410
Rizzo: .285/.350/.440
Stanton: .220/.290/.450
Torres: .275/.330/.430
Donaldson: .230/.315/.425
Hicks: .220/.360/.350
Trevino: .230/.280/.310
Cabrera: .240/.340/.450
Peraza: .230/.290/.380
Starting Pitchers:
Cole: 3.20 ERA
Cortes: 3.00 ERA
Severino: 3.40 ERA
Rodon: 2.90 ERA
Schmidt: 3.80 ERA
German: 4.20 ERA