Does Cody Bellinger Make Sense For the Yankees?
Let's Explore a Soto Plan B
The Cubs want to trade Cody Bellinger. MLB Trade Rumors lists the Yankees as a top tier fit. But does it make any sense?
Bellinger signed an odd contract late in the 2023-24 offseason. He is owed $27.5 million in 2025 and has a player option worth $25 million in 2026 that pays him $5 million if he opts out. He’ll be 29 in 2025.
It’s a bad contract. He’s overpaid for 2025. If he’s good enough to beat $20 million in free agency, he’ll opt out for 2026. If he’s not, he’s a big $25 million black hole in the roster. Let’s do this with pros and cons.
Why Not to Trade for Bellinger
Bellinger had a big year in 2023, but took a step back in 2024:
Bellinger hasn’t hit the ball like an average MLB hitter since his career took a turn in 2021. He regained his excellent contact skills in 2023, but we’re not talking about a power hitter anymore. He doesn’t barrel the ball up. He walks at an average rate. The total package was worth about 2.2 fWAR in 2024, although that would be a little higher had the Cubs used him in centerfield all season rather than starting him at 2nd base.
He’s thoroughly in the high-average, low-power quadrant on the back tracking leaderboards:
His neighbors on this leaderboard aren’t impressive: Alex Verdugo, Andrew Benintendi, Taylor Ward, Marcus Semine, Nico Hoerner. Yikes.
That’s pretty a pretty underwhelming package when you consider his salary. Bellinger is a solid major league player, but should probably make half of his current salary. There’s a reason why the Cubs want to unload him.
Why to Trade for Bellinger
If the Yankees sign Soto, Bellinger doesn’t make sense anymore. If they don’t, I think he fits the Yankees remarkably well.
Bellinger is a lefty batter, albeit with even-to-reverse splits. Pretty much every available batter right now is a right-handed hitter. If they lose Soto, they will be a little short on left-handed hitters again.
He’s also a pull hitter. Check out his 2024 spray chart:
Bellinger would have hit six more home runs in the Bronx, maybe more if he intentionally swung for it. Wrigley Field is rough on left-handed power hitters. Even peak Anthony Rizzo struggled to hit for power there.
He also plays center field. He’s still got his sprint speed and average or better range. There are basically no other center fielders on the market. The Yankees could move Chisholm there, but that opens up another hole in the infield. Up the middle defense makes Bellinger valuable even with an OPS in the low .700s.
I think Bellinger also has some latent potential. Maybe the Yankees can get him back closer to MVP-level performance. He’s still just 29 years old.
How to Make a Trade Work
I’m pretty confident that no team is going to just take on his contract. It’s a bad one. The Cubs would need to either take some money back or take a bad contract in return. I could see some version of a Stroman for Bellinger swap, but the Cubs don’t need another starter. Plus, I bet the Yankees could find someone to take Stroman’s salary without them having to take a bad contract in return. Maybe they just take $10 million of his salary or get something else of a value in return for taking on Bellinger’s contract. The Yankees wouldn’t have to give up a significant prospect in any scenario.
I don’t think that Bellinger makes much sense if the plan is to play him at 1st base, unless the Cubs take a ton of his salary. He’s not as good as Carlos Santana, who could probably be had for $10 million, let alone Christian Walker. It’s nice to have some positional flexibility, but there’s a huge difference in value between a solid centerfielder and good 1st baseman.
Bottom line: Bellinger is definitely overpaid and probably overrated, but he is still a valuable MLB player that fills a lot of the Yankees needs. There’s a reason why they were considered favorites to sign him before the Soto trade. I think the teams should be able to make a deal work. If Soto doesn’t sign, I think that my next offseason plan will include him in a creative trade.
I wanted Bellinge he past two years. Now with the current contract, he opts out if he has a good 2025 or we are stuck with him and his salary if he has a bad year. I do like him in CF if they dont get Soto. It certainly puts Judge back in RF which is a big plus. I suspect the yankees can have him in a trade if the Cubs are willing to pay some of his salary or take on Stoman and a prospect. I can see him hitting at least .270 with 25+ homers.
He makes sense as a CF or 1B as the team is currently constructed, Soto or no Soto. But just because he makes sense, is it a right move to make? Because of having to trade for him, Bellringer will cost less that Walker, money wise overall. But, I really do prefer Dominguez in CF, again, Soto or no Soto. Plus, the Yankees organizational philosophy of coaching by analytics, i.e. charts, not even video, sorry I don't like the Yankees coaching to get him really any better, and if he does, it's based on his athletic ability, not any real baseball coaching change they made.