We have some real trade news. The Yankees and Red Sox are talking about a Gleyber Torres for Alex Verdugo swap.
The trade makes a lot of sense. Verdugo is a solid, average-ish left-handed hitting outfielder. The Yankees have an extra second baseman. The Red Sox have three corner outfielders. Both players have one more year of team control left on their contract. At first glance, it’s a win-win trade.
But I think it’s also clear that the Yankees are mild losers in the trade. Let’s take a look at Verdugo:
Remember Andrew Benintendi? His parents swear that he and Verdugo aren’t long-lost brothers. The two players are uncannily similar: high contact, okay speed and defense, weak power. Basically, Verdugo isn’t going to transform any lineups.
Verdugo has a slight pull swing for home runs, but he’s also benefitted from the Green Monster. He might have a little to gain in Yankee Stadium:
So what’s the problem? A few things:
Torres is better than Verdugo: Torres has been a 3.0 WAR player. Verdugo has been right around 2.0 WAR every season. I think Verdugo’s reputation is a little inflated on account of being the big prospect in the Mookie Betts trade.
Who plays second? I guess LeMahieu would be the favorite, but then the Yankees would have a hole at third. Either way, absent other moves a Torres trade will mean a full season of Oswald Peraza as a starting infielder. Given his career .605 OPS, the Yankees could take a pretty huge hit on net from the trade, even if it means they get more left-handed.
The Yankees have other options in left field. I’d much rather they trade for someone like Max Kepler, or even a bigger name trade like Soto.
Torres is a valuable trade piece that could fetch some other better return.
I don’t think that the Yankees should overreact to the (correctly) diagnosed problems of their 2023 roster. They absolutely need to find two outfielders. They absolutely need to get more left-handed. They can probably play LeMahieu at second. But they shouldn’t do all of that in a way that makes their team worse. I think a Torres for Verdugo swap makes the 2024 Yankees on net worse.
If the Yankees and Red Sox announced the trade tomorrow, I wouldn’t be aghast. The players aren’t that different, and Verdugo is owed a bit less in salary. But I think the Yankees can do better.