2025 Player Preview: Carlos Rodon

Was his second half a real improvement?

After signing a mega-contract, Carlos Rodon had a disastrous 2023 season. He got hurt early, returned a little bit out of shape and ended the year with an ERA close to 7.00. 2024 was better, but the overall numbers were still far below what the Yankees thought they were buying when they signed him to a $162 million contract:

Rodon has good stuff, so he was hard to hit in 2024. But when batters did make contact, he got hit hard. His control was okay, so there wasn’t a ton of runners on base when batters homered off him. It all adds up to a pretty average innings eater.

But, there might be good news. Rodon became a much stronger pitcher as the season went on:

Rodon’s story is actually pretty simple. Most of his problems stayed the same throughout the 2024 season; he actually got hit harder in the second half than the first half. But, he also struck out a ton more guys. The result was an xERA that steadily decreased all season until he hit the mid-3.00s.

His 30% strikeout rate in the second half was 8th best in baseball, right alongside guys like Sonny Gray, Zack Wheeler and Tarik Skubal. He allowed more home runs and walks than those guys, but was still a top-30ish pitcher in baseball by fWAR after the All Star Break, ahead of even Gerrit Cole.

His playoff performance was more mixed, with a great ALCS sandwiched between two stinkers in the World Series and ALDS.

What does this all mean for Rodon next year? I’m not sure. Rodon clearly still has the power stuff to get guys out. But batters also feel really comfortable against a guy with two great pitches and a few show-me changeups. There’s no way any team would give him a big contract today.

But if we lower expectations a bit (and ignore his salary), I think Rodon is still a real asset. He was healthy all year. His 175 innings pitched qualify as a plus in modern baseball. If he can keep his ERA under 4.00, then we’re talking about a lot of above average frames from your 4th or 5th starter to spare your bullpen. Nestor Cortes was a 3.0 WAR player in 2023 with those stats. He doesn’t have to start playoff games if Cole, Fried, Gil and Schmidt are healthy.

And maybe Rodon can maintain his second half gear. I think it’s more likely that his 2025 stats look like his full season 2024 stats, but Rodon could have figured something out. He seems like a competitive guy, and might thrive if he needs to work for a playoff start. Rodon is still young enough to surprise us.